Five-Year Sales for Newly Marketed Prescription Drugs With and Without Initial Orphan Drug Act Designation.

This study evaluates sales revenue earned in the first 5 years for newly marketed brand-name drugs with and without an initial orphan drug designation.

Evaluation Method of Human Resource Management Efficiency of Chain Retail Enterprises Based on Distributed Database.

The calculation of human resource management efficiency evaluation method is large, which affects the technical efficiency and scale efficiency of evaluation results. Based on distributed database, an evaluation method of human resource management efficiency of chain retail enterprises is proposed. Genetic algorithm is applied to the design of distributed database to realize the best data allocation scheme. The distributed database is used to store the human resource information of chain retail enterprises to ensure the data consistency and information availability. Select the input and output elements that can best reflect the human resource management status of chain retail enterprises in the distributed database, design the management efficiency evaluation index system, and construct the DEA evaluation model. After testing, the technical efficiency and scale efficiency of the design method in this paper are higher than the evaluation methods of human resource management efficiency of chain retail enterprises based on principal component analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which is conducive to management decision-making.

On the relation between COVID-19, mobility, and the stock market.

The Covid-19 pandemic has brought forth a major landscape shock in the mobility sector. Due to its recentness, researchers have just started studying and understanding the implications of this crisis on mobility. We contribute by combining mobility data from various sources to bring a novel angle to understanding mobility patterns during Covid-19. The goal is to expose relations between mobility and Covid-19 variables and understand them by using our data. This is crucial information for governments to understand and address the underlying root causes of the impact.

An improved deep forest model for prediction of e-commerce consumers' repurchase behavior.

As the Internet retail industry continues to rise, more and more consumers choose to shop online, especially Chinese consumers. Using consumer behavior data left on the Internet to predict repurchase behavior is of great significance for companies to achieve precision marketing. This paper proposes an improved deep forest model, and the interactive behavior characteristics of users and goods are added into the original feature model to predict the repurchase behavior of e-commerce consumers. Based on the Alibaba mobile e-commerce platform data set, first construct a feature engineering that includes user characteristics, product characteristics, and interactive behavior characteristics. And then use our proposed model to make predictions. Experiments show that the model's overall performance with increased interactive behavior features is better and has higher accuracy. Compared with the existing prediction models, the improved deep forest model has certain advantages, which not only improves the prediction accuracy but also reduces the cost of training time.

Examining the Prevalence, Nutritional Quality and Marketing of Foods with Voluntary Nutrient Additions in the Canadian Food Supply.

Foods with voluntary nutritional additions are a fast-growing sector of the global food industry. In Canada, while the addition of nutrients to foods has been regulated through fortification regulations, parallel policies which aim to encourage product innovation have also allowed for the voluntary addition of nutrients and other novel ingredients to 'supplemented' and 'functional' foods. Concerns have been raised that the consumption of these products may have negative repercussions on population health, such as high nutrient intakes inappropriate for certain population subgroups (e.g., children) and the shifting of dietary patterns to include more unhealthy foods. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence, nutritional quality, and marketing characteristics of foods with added nutrients in the Canadian market. We found many nutritionally-enhanced foods contained high levels of nutrients beyond recommended intakes, despite these nutrients having no evidence of inadequacy in the Canadian population. Additionally, a large proportion of foods with added nutrients had poor nutrient profiles (were deemed 'less healthy' than their non-enhanced counterparts) and carried heavy marketing on their labels, regardless of their nutritional quality. Taken together these findings raise concerns about foods with voluntary nutrient additions and suggest the need to further investigate consumer attitudes and decision-making towards these foods.

Predicted preference conjoint analysis.

In this paper we propose a new method of eliciting market research information. Instead of asking respondents for their personal choices and preferences, we ask respondents to predict the choices of other respondents to the survey. Such predictions tap respondents' knowledge of peers, whether based on direct social contacts or on more general cultural information. The effectiveness of this approach has already been demonstrated in the context of political polling. Here we extend it to market research, specifically, to conjoint analysis. An advantage of the new approach is that it can elicit reliable responses in situations where people are not comfortable with disclosing their true preferences, but may be willing to give information about people around them. A theoretical argument demonstrates that predictions should yield utility estimates that are more accurate. These theoretical results are confirmed in four online experiments.

The Nature and Extent of Online Marketing by Big Food and Big Alcohol During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Australia: Content Analysis Study.

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence demonstrates that obesity is associated with a higher risk of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Excessive alcohol consumption and "comfort eating" as coping mechanisms during times of high stress have been shown to further exacerbate mental and physical ill-health. Global examples suggest that unhealthy food and alcohol brands and companies are using the COVID-19 pandemic to further market their products. However, there has been no systematic, in-depth analysis of how "Big Food" and "Big Alcohol" are capitalizing on the COVID-19 pandemic to market their products and brands. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to quantify the extent and nature of online marketing by alcohol and unhealthy food and beverage companies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. METHODS: We conducted a content analysis of all COVID-19-related social media posts made by leading alcohol and unhealthy food and beverage brands (n=42) and their parent companies (n=12) over a 4-month period (February to May 2020) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. RESULTS: Nearly 80% of included brands and all parent companies posted content related to COVID-19 during the 4-month period. Quick service restaurants (QSRs), food and alcohol delivery companies, alcohol brands, and bottle shops were the most active in posting COVID-19-related content. The most common themes for COVID-19-related marketing were isolation activities and community support. Promotion of hygiene and home delivery was also common, particularly for QSRs and alcohol and food delivery companies. Parent companies were more likely to post about corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives, such as donations of money and products, and to offer health advice. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to show that Big Food and Big Alcohol are incessantly marketing their products and brands on social media platforms using themes related to COVID-19, such as isolation activities and community support. Parent companies are frequently posting about CSR initiatives, such as donations of money and products, thereby creating a fertile environment to loosen current regulation or resist further industry regulation. "COVID-washing" by large alcohol brands, food and beverage brands, and their parent companies is both common and concerning. The need for comprehensive regulations to restrict unhealthy food and alcohol marketing, as recommended by the World Health Organization, is particularly acute in the COVID-19 context and is urgently required to "build back better" in a post-COVID-19 world.

Reconstructing dynamics of foodborne disease outbreaks in the US cattle market from monitoring data.

Conventional empirical studies of foodborne-disease outbreaks (FDOs) in agricultural markets are linear-stochastic formulations hardwiring a world in which markets self-correct in response to external random shocks including FDOs. These formulations were unequipped to establish whether FDOs cause market reaction, or whether markets endogenously propagate outbreaks. We applied nonlinear time series analysis (NLTS) to reconstruct annual dynamics of FDOs in US cattle markets from CDC outbreak data, live cattle futures market prices, and USDA cattle inventories from 1967-2018, and used reconstructed dynamics to detect causality. Reconstructed deterministic nonlinear market dynamics are endogenously unstable-not self-correcting, and cattle inventories drive futures prices and FDOs attributed to beef in temporal patterns linked to a multi-decadal cattle cycle undetected in daily/weekly price movements investigated previously. Benchmarking real-world dynamics with NLTS offers more informative and credible empirical modeling at the convergence of natural and economic sciences.

Insights into mobile health application market via a content analysis of marketplace data with machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Despite the benefits offered by an abundance of health applications promoted on app marketplaces (e.g., Google Play Store), the wide adoption of mobile health and e-health apps is yet to come. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the current landscape of smartphone apps that focus on improving and sustaining health and wellbeing. Understanding the categories that popular apps focus on and the relevant features provided to users, which lead to higher user scores and downloads will offer insights to enable higher adoption in the general populace. This study on 1,000 mobile health applications aims to shed light on the reasons why particular apps are liked and adopted while many are not. METHODS: User-generated data (i.e. review scores) and company-generated data (i.e. app descriptions) were collected from app marketplaces and manually coded and categorized by two researchers. For analysis, Artificial Neural Networks, Random Forest and Naïve Bayes Artificial Intelligence algorithms were used. RESULTS: The analysis led to features that attracted more download behavior and higher user scores. The findings suggest that apps that mention a privacy policy or provide videos in description lead to higher user scores, whereas free apps with in-app purchase possibilities, social networking and sharing features and feedback mechanisms lead to higher number of downloads. Moreover, differences in user scores and the total number of downloads are detected in distinct subcategories of mobile health apps. CONCLUSION: This study contributes to the current knowledge of m-health application use by reviewing mobile health applications using content analysis and machine learning algorithms. The content analysis adds significant value by providing classification, keywords and factors that influence download behavior and user scores in a m-health context.

Commercial growing up milks: usage frequency and associated child and demographic factors across four Asia Pacific countries.

BACKGROUND: Commercial growing up milks (GUMs) targeted at children from 12 to 36 months of age are a rapidly growing industry, particularly across the Asia Pacific. METHODS: The present study assessed the frequency of use and socio-demographic and child associations of commercial GUM feeding in children, aged between 12 and 36 months, in capital cities in four Asia Pacific countries. Mothers of children aged between 12 and 36 months were surveyed, assessing GUM feeding frequency in the past month. A market research company database was used to survey across Asia Pacific urban cities, including Bangkok Thailand, Jakarta Indonesia, Singapore and Australian Capital Cities (ACC). RESULTS: More than 1000 women (n = 1051) were surveyed (Bangkok, n = 263; Jakarta, n = 275; ACC, n = 252; Singapore, n = 261). The mean (SD) age of mothers was 32.4 (5.3) years and that of children was 23.6 (6.7) months. In total, 62.7% of the children were fed GUMs more than once per week with significant country variance. In comparison with ACC, Asian countries were significantly more likely to feed GUMs ≥once per week: Bangkok [odds ratio (OR) = 5.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.8-8.6]; Jakarta (OR = 3.5, 95% CI = 2.3-5.5); and Singapore (OR = 7.4, 95% CI = 4.9-11.1). Associations of GUM feeding included: maternal tertiary education; mothers younger than 30 years; working full time; and feeding of commercial infant formula under 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first published study to explore commercial GUM feeding in and between countries. The incidence of GUM feeding, in contrast to international recommendations, signals the need for further research into the drivers for GUM feeding and its contribution to the diet.

Public Opinion Perceptions, Private Support, and Public Actions of US Adults Regarding Gun Safety Policy.

Importance: Despite broad public support for gun safety policies, minimal policy implementation has occurred. Objective: To investigate factors that encourage greater private support for and public action on gun safety policy. Design, Setting, and Participants: Three studies were conducted: a public opinion survey (Study 1) was conducted from January 8 to 22, 2019, and 2 experiments (Studies 2 and 3) were conducted from August 27 to October 17, 2019, and April 15 to 21, 2020, respectively. Adults living in the US were eligible to participate in Studies 1 and 3. Students 18 years and older participating in a research experience program were eligible to participate in Study 2. Study 1 was administered online by Ipsos, a market research company. A nationally representative sample of 1000 US adults was obtained from Ipsos' online KnowledgePanel, of whom 508 completed the public opinion survey. For Study 2, which was conducted in a university laboratory, 354 participants were recruited from a university research pool, all of whom completed the study. Study 3 was administered online by the market research company YouGov, which identified 727 US gun owners from its opt-in panel, from which it constructed a census-matched sample of 400 participants. Exposures: Participants read a statement about the 2018 Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting. Content was manipulated as a 2 (corrective information vs no corrective information) × 2 (system changeable vs system not changeable) between-subjects factorial design with random assignment. The corrective information included polling data highlighting widespread support among gun owners for several gun safety policies. System changeable described gun safety policies passed by Florida's legislature. Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes were support for gun safety policies and public disclosure of support. Results: The 3 studies included a total of 1262 participants (Study 1: 508 participants; weighted mean [SD] age, 47.7 [17.5] years; 261.9 women [51.6%]; 82.5 Hispanic [16.2%] and 60.3 Black [11.9%]; Study 2: 354 participants; mean [SD] age, 20.0 [2.3] years; 232 women [65.9%]; 100 Asian [28.3%] and 37 Black [10.5%]; Study 3: 400 participants; weighted mean [SD] age, 52.1 [16.4] years; 187.3 women [46.8%]; 295.5 White [73.9%], 44.5 Hispanic [11.1%], and 32.4 Black [8.1%]). Study 1 found that 63% to 91% of gun owners and 83% to 93% of non-gun owners supported key gun safety policies, yet both groups significantly underestimated gun owners' support for these policies by between 12% and 31%. Studies 2 and 3 found that exposure to corrective information was associated with a small increase in support for 2 gun safety policies of between 4% and 15%, both in terms of participants' privately held beliefs and the beliefs they would be willing to share publicly. Conclusions and Relevance: This survey study found that many US adults failed to recognize that most gun owners support key gun safety policies. Correcting this misperception was associated with greater private and public support for gun safety policy.

Assessing whether the best land is cultivated first: A quantile analysis.

Classical land rent theories imply that the best land is cultivated first. This principle forms the basis of many land-use studies, but empirical evidence remains limited, especially on a global scale. In this paper, we estimate the effects of agricultural suitability and market accessibility on the spatial allocation of cultivated areas at a 30 arc-min resolution in 15 world regions. Our results show that both determinants often have a significant positive effect on the cropland fraction, but with large variations in strength across regions. Based on a quantile analysis, we find that agricultural suitability is the dominant driver of cropland allocation in North America, Middle East and North Africa and Eastern Europe, whereas market accessibility shows a stronger effect in other regions, such as Western Africa. In some regions, such as South and Central America, both determinants have a limited effect on cropland fraction. Comparison of high versus low quantile regression coefficients shows that, in most regions, densely cropped areas are more sensitive to agricultural suitability and market accessibility than sparsely cropped areas.

How Internet Contracts Impact Research: Content Analysis of Terms of Service on Consumer Product Websites.

BACKGROUND: Companies use brand websites as a promotional tool to engage consumers on the web, which can increase product use. Given that some products are harmful to the health of consumers, it is important for marketing associated with these products to be subject to public health surveillance. However, terms of service (TOS) governing the use of brand website content may impede such important research. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to explore the TOS for brand websites with public health significance to assess possible legal and ethical challenges for conducting research on consumer product websites. METHODS: Using Statista, we purposefully constructed a sample of 15 leading American tobacco, alcohol, psychiatric pharmaceutical, fast-food, and gun brands that have associated websites. We developed and implemented a structured coding system for the TOS on these websites and coded for the presence versus absence of different types of restriction that might impact the ability to conduct research. RESULTS: All TOS stated that by accessing the website, users agreed to abide by the TOS (15/15, 100%). A total of 11 out of 15 (73%) websites had age restrictions in their TOS. All alcohol brand websites (5/15, 33%) required users to enter their age or date of birth before viewing website content. Both websites for tobacco brands (2/15, 13%) further required that users register and verify their age and identity to access any website content and agree that they use tobacco products. Only one website (1/15, 7%) allowed users to display, download, copy, distribute, and translate the website content as long as it was for personal and not commercial use. A total of 33% (5/15) of TOS unconditionally prohibited or put substantial restrictions on all of these activities and/or failed to specify if they were allowed or prohibited. Moreover, 87% (13/15) of TOS indicated that website access could be restricted at any time. A total of 73% (11/15) of websites specified that violating TOS could result in deleting user content from the website, revoking access by having the user's Internet Protocol address blocked, terminating log-in credentials, or enforcing legal action resulting in civil or criminal penalties. CONCLUSIONS: TOS create complications for public health surveillance related to e-marketing on brand websites. Recent court opinions have reduced the risk of federal criminal charges for violating TOS on public websites, but this risk remains unclear for private websites. The public health community needs to establish standards to guide and protect researchers from the possibility of legal repercussions related to such efforts.

Alcohol use disorders, beverage preferences and the influence of alcohol marketing: a preliminary study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol Use Disorders (AUD) are among the most prevalent mental disorders in the world. They are the leading risk factor for premature mortality and disability among 15 to 49-year-olds. Links between alcohol marketing and patterns of alcohol consumption are well defined in adolescents but there is few data on the impact of alcohol marketing on a population of drinkers with an AUD and seeking treatment. This study was designed in collaboration among researchers specialising in addictive disorders, in social marketing and primary care. METHODS: This was a monocentric, cross-sectional, descriptive study. The main objective of this study was to define the type of marketing identified by drinkers with an AUD who were seeking treatment and their beverage preferences. Drinkers aged 18+ with an AUD and seeking treatment were included. A descriptive analysis and a logistic regression were carried out . RESULTS: N = 91 patients were included, 73.6% were male, the average age was 46.2 years. 72% said they were not influenced by alcohol marketing, but 76% recalled an alcohol advertisement in the last 6 months. The most frequently reported beverage preferences were wine (39.6%), standard beers (29.6%), spirits (27.5%) and strong beers (16.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with AUD, defined as vulnerable, reported exposure to alcohol marketing but did not seem to identify it consciously. Marketing influences differed according to beverage preferences. These results need to be confirmed by a larger study.

Awareness of Marketing of Heated Tobacco Products and Cigarettes and Support for Tobacco Marketing Restrictions in Japan: Findings from the 2018 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Japan Survey.

Japan is one of the world's largest cigarette markets and the top heated tobacco product (HTP) market. No forms of tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship (TAPS) are banned under national law, although the industry has some voluntary TAPS restrictions. This study examines Japanese tobacco users' self-reported exposure to cigarette and HTP marketing through eight channels, as well as their support for TAPS bans. Data are from the 2018 ITC Japan Survey, a cohort survey of adult exclusive cigarette smokers (n = 3288), exclusive HTP users (n = 164), HTP-cigarette dual users (n = 549), and non-users (n = 614). Measures of overall average exposure to the eight channels of cigarette and HTP advertising were constructed to examine differences in exposure across user groups and products. Dual users reported the highest exposure to cigarette and HTP advertising. Tobacco users (those who used cigarettes, HTPs, or both) reported higher average exposure to HTP compared to cigarette advertising, however non-users reported higher average exposure to cigarette compared to HTP advertising. Retail stores where tobacco or HTPs are sold were the most prevalent channel for HTP and cigarette advertising, reported by 30-43% of non-users to 66-71% of dual users. Non-users reported similar exposure to cigarette advertising via television and newspapers/magazines as cigarette smokers and dual users; however, advertising via websites/social media was lower among non-users and HTP users than among cigarette smokers and dual users (p < 0.05). Most respondents supported a ban on cigarette (54%) and HTP (60%) product displays in stores, and cigarette advertising in stores (58%).

Influence of Tobacco Marketing on Nepalese Adolescents: Cigarette Use and Susceptibility to Cigarette Use.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship (TAPS) are common tactics of the tobacco industry to encourage adolescents to use tobacco products. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to assess the influence of TAPS on cigarette use and susceptibility to cigarette use among Nepalese adolescents. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data (n=2,878) were drawn from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey for Nepal (GYTS, 2011). Channel-specific and cumulative TAPS exposure were the primary exposures of the study. Six multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to examine current and ever cigarette use outcome with exposure to TAPS. Six binary logistic regression analyses were applied to determine the susceptibility to cigarette use when exposed to TAPS. RESULTS: Channel-specific TAPS analyses show that indirect TAPS increases the odds of all the three outcomes; current cigarette use (OR=1.68, 95% CI=1.10-2.58), ever cigarette use (OR=1.81, 95% CI=1.23-2.65) and susceptibility to cigarette use (OR=1.65, 95% CI=1.25-2.19) after adjusting for the covariates. Television (TV) and movies exposure decreases the odds of susceptibility to cigarette use (OR=0.55, 95% CI=0.31-0.97). Cumulative TAPS analyses show that exposure to 5 sources of TAPS increases the odds of current cigarette use (OR=2.53, 95% CI=1.21-5.29). Being male increases the odds of all the three outcomes; current (OR=3.52, 95% CI=2.11-5.87), ever (OR=2.51, 95% CI=1.69-3.73) and susceptibility to cigarette use (OR=1.31, 95% CI=1.01-1.69). Social influence is likely to increase current (OR=6.47, 95% CI=2.50-16.74), ever (OR=1.79, 95% CI=1.10-2.93) and susceptibility to cigarette use (OR=1.66, 95% CI=1.25-2.21). CONCLUSION: Indirect TAPS exposure increased the current, ever, and susceptibility to cigarette use among Nepalese adolescents. Overall, the current use of cigarettes followed a dose-response relationship with TAPS exposure. The result implies a requirement of active surveillance of tobacco products and future research on adolescent-focused tobacco marketing in Nepal.

Segmentation of time series in up- and down-trends using the epsilon-tau procedure with application to USD/JPY foreign exchange market data.

We propose the epsilon-tau procedure to determine up- and down-trends in a time series, working as a tool for its segmentation. The method denomination reflects the use of a tolerance level ε for the series values and a patience level τ in the time axis to delimit the trends. We first illustrate the procedure in discrete random walks, deriving the exact probability distributions of trend lengths and trend amplitudes, and then apply it to segment and analyze the trends of U.S. dollar (USD)/Japanese yen (JPY) market time series from 2015 to 2018. Besides studying the statistics of trend lengths and amplitudes, we investigate the internal structure of the trends by grouping trends with similar shapes and selecting clusters of shapes that rarely occur in the randomized data. Particularly, we identify a set of down-trends presenting similar sharp appreciation of the yen that are associated with exceptional events such as the Brexit Referendum in 2016.

Analysing persuasive marketing of ultra-processed foods on Brazilian television.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the use of persuasive advertising strategies in ultra-processed food (UPF) advertisements broadcast on the three most popular free-to-air television channels in Brazil. METHODS: The programming of the selected channels was recorded on eight non-consecutive days from April 2018 (6:00 am-12:00 am). Information from each advertising piece was collected through an electronic questionnaire based on the INFORMAS protocol. Food products were classified according to the NOVA classification system. Marketing strategies were investigated in UPF advertisements and stratified into three groups. Principal component analysis was used to identify patterns of strategies. Linear regression models were employed to investigate the association between the patterns and food groups. RESULTS: In total, 90.77% of the food-related advertisements contained at least one UPF, and 96% of them included one or more persuasive advertising strategies. Five advertising patterns were identified and associated with the UPF food groups. CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that food advertising on Brazilian free television is marked by UPF, with the predominant use of persuasive advertising strategies, demonstrating a lack of enforcement of the current regulatory legislation in the country.